The Death of Osama Bin Laden and its Impact on Africa

The Death of Osama Bin Laden and its Impact on Africa

by the International Crime in Africa Programme, ISS Pretoria Office


During the early hours of Sunday, 1 May 2011, United States forces killed Osama bin Laden, the world number one fugitive, the leader of al Qa’eda and the mastermind of the several terrorist attacks around the world, including the phenomenal attacks against Kenya and Tanzania in 1998 and in the US in 2001 (9/11). This was in what seemed to have been a top secret and surgical intelligence operation. The death of bin Laden at a fortified compound on the outskirts of Abbottabad in north-west Pakistan is celebrated around the world as a momentous achievement of long awaited justice for the thousands of victims of terrorism.

Africa has always been an important region for bin Laden and for the survival of al Qa’eda. Sudan became his second home after his expulsion from his home country, Saudi Arabia in 1991, where he set up training camps for al Qa’eda operatives. The conflict in Somalia provided the first theater for bin Laden to launch his jihad against the US in 1993, by sending mujahideens to fight American forces in Somalia. In addition, two Africans are at the helms of the al Qa’eda leadership-- the Egyptian Ayman al-Zawahiri, deputy commander and the most obvious successor to bin Laden, and Abu Yahya al-Libi – now one of al-Qaeda’s leading propagandists and strategists, gaining prominence since the Libyan uprising. Al Qa’eda also boasts strong support in Africa with groups such as the, the Nigerian Boko Haram, the Somali al Shabaab and the Algerian Al Qa’eda in the land of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the last two having openly pledged their allegiance to bin Laden. The continent has also served as al Qa’eda’s breadbasket with cells in Sierra Leone raising funds through illegal deals in diamonds. The significance of the continent became even more obvious when bin Laden carried out his first successful major attacks in Nairobi, Kenya and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, killing 224 people and injuring 5000 others. The success of these attacks in terms of the magnitude of the carnage would later embolden bin Laden to plan and execute 9/11 only three years later.

There has been a cautious reaction to bin Laden’s death in Africa. The most salient reaction so far has come from Kenya, which sustained 200 deaths and over 1000 people injured in the devastation in August 1998, as well as subsequent al Qa’eda masterminded attacks in 2002. In a press briefing, President Mwai Kibaki welcomed the killing as an act of justice. As he averred, "The killing of Osama has taken place nearly thirteen years after the terrorist bombings in Nairobi that led to the death of over two hundred people, in an act believed to have been masterminded by Osama. … His killing is an act of justice to those Kenyans who lost their lives and the many more who suffered injuries." The President of Tanzania, Jakaya Kikwete added that the death is a relief, while the Foreign Minister of Mali, Soumeylou Boubeye Maiga also hailed it. Albeit these reactions and sentiments that justice has been done, there has also been a major concern that the death of bin Laden would trigger more terrorist attacks on the continent. The mood on the streets has been mixed. While victims of al Shabaab celebrate it in Somalia, al Shabaab spokesman Mohamed Osman told AP News Agency that the group would take revenge for bin Laden`s death with "destructive explosions."

The impact of bin Laden’s death on terrorism in Africa will be felt over time and this will largely depend on the new al Qa’eda leadership and its ability to inspire and unite the various al Qa’eda cells around the world, which operate almost autonomously from the central al Qa’eda command. There are three main levels on which bin Laden’s death will have ramifications. First is at the level of organizational survival. The connection between bin Laden and most groups was mainly ideological rather than organizational and resource dependence. It is therefore unlikely that the death of bin Laden will cause the collapse of the major terrorist groups in Africa such as AQIM, al Shabaab and Boko Haram, at least not in the short term. These groups have survived various internal leadership shocks and it could be expected that they would remain resilient to the death of their hero and ideological leader.

Secondly, bin Laden’s death will impact on the frequency of terrorist acts. Here the fear is that he would be canonised as a martyr and become even more inspirational to his followers, who will seek to avenge his death. For example, jihadist internet forums have eulogised bin Laden as a figurehead and insisted that his death will not diminish their determination to continue the jihadist cause. The death of bin Laden could also backfire, if it is discovered that certain conventions were not respected in the US covert operation that led to the killing. In light of the aforementioned, the death of bin Laden does not signal the end of terrorism but could represent a new era of ferocious attacks and terrorists groups would seek to demonstrate that it is business as usual. He made jihad truly universal, whereby a threat to Muslims anywhere is considered a threat to Muslims everywhere. Thus, an American Muslim has an equal responsibility to fight in Somalia, a Moroccan in Iraq, an Algerian in Afghanistan, etc. It is this ability to bond and inspire young Muslims to fight everywhere that makes the death of bin Laden a costly affair for al Qa’eda, one that could see its disintegration.

The third area of impact will be the global war on terror. The current war on terror has been overly focused on the elusive quest for bin Laden and al Qa’eda operatives, which led the US to invade Afghanistan and Iraq, where billions upon billions of dollars have been wasted. With the al Qa’eda leader now gone, the international community would now have to reevaluate the war on terror and to redirect resources and focus on practical matters of the prevention and disrupting terrorist operations globally, particularly in Africa where the threat remains visible. It will also strengthen international cooperation that has been strained by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Areas such as intelligence and law enforcement will take on a new dimension of cooperation between African states and the US government.

With the post-bin Laden attacks in Pakistan and Afghanistan, the prospect of ‘revenge’ terrorist attacks by al-Qa’eda and its affiliates could be expected in the coming days, weeks, months and years, as terrorist will seek to demonstrate their resilience. The death of bin Laden however, represents an opportunity to beef up security and strengthen the fight against terrorism in order to win back previous al Qa’eda operatives who may now find themselves on the fence, caught between continuing or abandoning terrorism. Coming just months before the tenth anniversary of 9/11, the death of bin Laden may equally represents a positive signal that the war on terrorism is winnable, but such a victory shall come with time, serious planning, cooperation and steadfast commitment to the anti-terrorism cause. Given the trends in Africa, its vulnerabilities and its links to al Qa’eda, it is likely that the next bin Laden will emerge from the continent, a development, which, will not augur well for its peace and security.