David Zounmenou, Senior Researcher, African Conflict Prevention Programme, ISS Pretoria Office
With recent political developments in Burkina Faso and Senegal and governments’ reactions toward social discontent, one could not help but ask whether leaders are capable of deciphering the signs of popular rejection and anticipate an exit that spares their countries unnecessary pain. In Senegal people are now deeply divided about whether the President Abdoulaye Wade should stand for a third term and whether his son is entitled to rule the country.
On June 16 Wade decided to initiate a constitutional amendment ahead of the 2012 presidential polls. The amendment, intended to create what was called a “presidential ticket”, would make provision for the creation of a vice-president. It was also intended to lower the requested 50 percent to 25 percent of the national votes for a candidate to be declared a winner of the polls without a run-off. The vice-president is to be elected along with the president in the upcoming electoral contest.
Senegal has never had a vice-president before and the current regime has amended the constitution a number of times. In addition, there was no term limit in the Senegalese constitution when Wade came to power in 2000 and the president could serve as many terms as Wade’s seven years in office. In 2001, the Wade regime amended the constitution to reduce the seven-year tenure to five and set the two terms limits with an implicit understanding that the president himself might not serve more than two terms.
The regime has now developed a legal argument that the new law is not retroactive and therefore Wade is entitled to stand for the 2012 Elections, since it is interpreted as his second term under the 2001 constitution. Wade alleges that nothing in the constitution opposes his candidacy and that his son, as any Senegalese citizen, also has the right to take part in electoral contest if he so desires. But for the opposition his argument at best needs to be understood within the context that African leaders have creative ways of circumventing their constitutions and electoral laws in the pursuit of maintaining their power.
Beyond the controversy around the proposed amendment, the issue of Wade’ succession and the possibility of his son Karim Wade taking over the presidency continues to polarise Senegal. Under the 2001 constitution, in case of Wade’s inability to complete his term, power is transferred to the Speaker of the National Assembly, Pape Diop. But the latter has been weakened and lack a strong political base to stand the challenge. Even though Wade insisted that the new law was to consolidate democracy in Senegal, he failed to mobilise support beyond his cabinet.
The move to amend the constitution in order to introduce the controversial candidacy drew massive street protests. Leaders of the opposition and civil society organisations accused Wade of attempting to plan a “dynastic succession” and went on rampage against what they called an opportunistic constitutional amendment.
Indeed, security forces endured nearly a week monitoring violent demonstrators in the country’s capital, Dakar, and several major towns and cities across what has been one of Africa’s most stable nations. According to media reports, Karim Wade would have tried to seek help from France to put the riots down. It is also reported that more than 100 people were injured in the clashes.
If these protests are something to go by, they signify once again the growing unpopularity of Wade’s presidency, especially over the past few years in which he is perceived as presiding over the deteriorating performance of government, inability to address social-economic challenges of the county whilst attempting to hang onto power. Forced by the scope of reaction of ordinary people and the level of violence, Wade has decided to withdraw his proposal but promised to still stand for 2012 polls. For the opposition, this could be seen as a political defeat for Wade and the pressure should be sustained to force him out power at the end on his current term.
The increasing deterioration in the living conditions of the citizens also tends to cloud Wade’s political legacy. The current polarisation of the political environment is worsened by frequent protests through which citizens voice their frustrations over a continuously tense political climate, chronic power shortages, floods, and abusive amendments to the constitution.
While the North Africa protests continue to inspire opposition against long-standing rulers in the continent, it must be kept in mind that Senegalese have, in the last couple of years, frequently undertaken large-scale protests to defend their democracy. The 23 June Movement, a coalition of opposition parties and civil society activists, has vowed to sustain the fight for genuine democratic succession in Senegal. Failure to plan orderly political successions in Cote d’Ivoire and Guinea has planted the seeds for instability.
The weakest link in all this is the Senegalese opposition movement that is far from being united and coherent; though in the past a common front had helped them win the March 2009 municipal elections. This included Dakar - thwarting the political ambition of Karim Wade to become the mayor of the capital city and use it as a platform to launch his presidential bid.
Without unity, a change in favour of the opposition is highly unlikely in 2012 and risks of violent contestation are high. President Wade, aged 85, was one of the longest serving opposition politicians in Africa. His electoral triumph in 2000 was seen as an opportunity for change and a step towards consolidating Senegalese democratic experience. But as the African wisdom holds it, one needs to live longer to see something and its opposite at the same time.
It is clear that Wade has neither given up in his intention to retain power beyond 2012 nor propping up his son - currently the minister of energy, infrastructure, transport and international cooperation - to the presidential helm. A committee set to engage various political actors to find solutions to the crisis has yet to convince Senegalese of its authority and impartiality. For the time being, opposition leaders doubt its ability to reach a political consensus acceptable to all citizens. The only option remaining might be a free and fair electoral process in which people will decide whether to keep or end the rule of one of the most controversial political figures in Senegalese political history.
Since the 2007 presidential elections, the Senegalese political landscape has become highly fragmented while Wade faces serious concerns over his age and health. The question is whether Wade will adjust his political trajectory so as to leavean acceptable political legacy. How Wade manages the current national crisis will have a lasting impact on the Senegalese democratic system and his own political legacy. The euphoria that followed the electoral victory of opposition leaders, perceived as a triumph of democracy, will have to be revisited.
In the prevailing circumstances, there is a need for dialogue on and understanding of the future of Senegal’s socio-economic and political dispensation. Although an electoral victory will provide the winner with the means to manipulate state institutions, it also holds out the likelihood of increased conflict and instability. Consolidating democracy is a long-term process built on a commitment by various political forces to reach a national consensus that reinforces dialogue, respect for national institutions, transparency, and above all, on the willingness to put national interest before their own.
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário